2019 was a fantastic year for us, travel-wise. We made the most of our holiday calendar and stretched it just enough to satiate our appetite for travel. From exploring the millenia old rock-cut Ajanta Caves in Aurangabad to kayaking together for the first time in Palavayal (Kerala). And climbing up an eerie fort in Hatgad (Maharashtra) and criss-crossing the gem of the old Silk Road, Uzbekistan. We ended the year becoming tourists in our very own city, Mumbai.
2020 was supposed to be bigger. We relocated to the exciting city-state of Singapore and were dreaming of our sojourns in Southeast Asia. Indonesia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Taiwan – we will cover them all, we thought. Yet, here we are. Nearly half of 2020 has gone by and we are confined to our apartment. Chances of international travel for the rest of the year looking quite bleak.
Life, as we all know it, has come to a grinding halt across the globe in a truly unprecedented fashion. Offices have shut and employees have been asked to work from home. Restaurants and cafes have had to pivot to cater to online deliveries. Most commercial aeroplanes across the world are now on the ground, in packed tarmacs.
The impact of the coronavirus has had a far-reaching impact as a pandemic. Economies have been set back by years and, in some cases, even decades. Entire industries like cruise shipping, tourism, retail and hotels are amongst the few that have come to a complete grinding halt.
We’ve been having several conversations around this, among ourselves and with our friends, on how the post-pandemic world is going to look. Not only from a general perspective, but also a travel perspective.
It seems increasingly likely there will be a post Covid-19 world which will be totally different from the pre Covid-19 world. Things like how we work, travel to work, dine out, how we view and spend money, government policies and even vacations and holidays are all going to see radical changes. Call it ‘the new normal’ if you will.
While we may not be able to completely predict the future, here are some things we feel will change the way we travel.
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1. Domestic travel will rise first
It looks increasingly likely that people will ditch or postpone any international travel, at least for the next couple of years. Given most countries across the world have closed their borders for non-essential travel, getting visas could get harder.
This means travellers and tourists alike will look to keep most of their travel domestic so as to help the local travel industry bounce back and eventually thrive. The tourism industry, which supports one job out of every ten jobs, will have some sort of reprieve in light of international travel looking bleak.
Passengers will be increasingly wary of booking their next international ticket. While airlines will need to assure they are taking all necessary precautions to disinfect the seats, toilets, tray tables etc. and maintaining social distancing in flights, travellers will still be cautious.
This will also give nature some much-needed time to heal. Local trips will ensure more smaller businesses which vary from hostels and homestays to handlooms and from small tour operators to food and beverages slowly and steadily get back into the groove.
In addition to that, travellers will be more comfortable in familiar surroundings where they know it’s easier to communicate or get help and thereby reduces the risk of being stuck in a foreign country.
That long-pending road trip to Tarkarli or a hike in the Hampta Pass looks more enticing now.
2. Slow travel is here to stay
The days of jet-setting through Europe covering 7 countries in 2 weeks will be a thing of the past. Countries will be more wary of who they allow into their borders and visas could get difficult. The concept of immunity passports/certificates could be a thing.
Travellers will want to make more out of their vacations and derive value out of the money they’ve spent in making their trips happen. Given that we are beginning to be aware of our carbon footprint, people will want to take more meaningful vacations rather than just hurtling through places with no semblance of truly experiencing the place.
Slow travel will involve spending more time at a particular place and exploring lesser-known gems instead of sticking to the more touristy and crowded parts. It will mean more land crossing of borders and longer vacations instead of jet-setting.
This also correlates to the first point. For example, people will want to move away from exploring only touristy Barcelona and check out its little neighbour, Girona. People may want to distance themselves from Bali and instead take a nature hike in Borneo.
3. Immunity passports or certificates could be a thing
Another change in travel that has been doing the rounds is the introduction of immunity passports or immunity certificates. These indicate that one is fit for traveling and doesn’t pose a threat to a country’s healthcare if allowed in.
This means that if you are a survivor of the Covid 19 virus, it means you have suitable immunity. Given that some countries like South Korea have reported a relapse in cases, this may or may not be the right move going ahead. Studies to prove that one is immune from the virus having recovered from it have been inconclusive.
Introduction of immunity passports/certificates could potentially pose multiple risks. For example, what if these passports/certificates could be easily forged?
It could also lead to a dangerous precedence where people will want to get affected by the virus intentionally, in order to receive the seal of approval to travel.
4. Travel bubbles will be the stepping stone to international travel
Countries that have performed remarkably well in containing the pandemic have been open to the idea of creating travel bubbles. In simpler terms, it means residents of the participating countries of these travel bubbles will be allowed to travel to and fro between these countries.
Australia and New Zealand were the first countries to propose the trans-Tasman travel bubble. These countries have nearly contained all community spread, thereby making themselves safe for travel. Recently, some counties in Europe have also been open to this idea and have agreed to allow visitors from countries to travel at manageable rates, while visitors from countries not in the travel bubble will need to spend 14 days in quarantine.
These travel bubbles will eventually weed out to more countries joining in depending on their respective situations for readiness to travel.
5. The era of business-travel could be dead
In addition to all of the personal leisure trips we took last year, we also did several work trips. I flew to Southeast Asia almost every month to meet clients and sometimes even twice a month. Deepali had to make several domestic trips to organise workshops and sessions at her company.
In fact, I managed to squeeze in a couple of work trips earlier this year as well. All those trips seem like a thing of the past now.
Over the last few months, teams across companies have had to cope with lockdowns and travel restrictions across the world. Staring into grids of people on laptop screens have replaced actual physical meetings.
It looks highly unlikely that companies themselves will want to send their employees on business trips and look for ways to not only minimise cost, but also minimise risk.
Deals and business reviews have been conducted over Zoom meetings, and companies are probably realising that the office is dead. The cloud has truly replaced the clouds.
6. Cruise Lines will have to work harder to win trust
The early months of the pandemic this year covered several stories of cruise ships with infected passengers being rejected at port after port. Being stuck in a vessel in the middle of the sea with probably a 100 others infected with a highly contagious virus is no one’s idea of a vacation.
Cruise lines, apart from airlines and hotels, have been hit the hardest by the pandemic. Not only has the industry come to a grinding halt, the Diamond Princess fiasco has struck the industry right where it hurts. Popularity and confidence have taken a major hit.
Cruise ships will need to take excess measures to ensure the health and sanitation of their guests. Regular sanitisation, lesser crowds at common areas, shorter routes etc. are part of the plans that are mooted to bring the cruise shipping industry back to life. It is still going to take a lot more than a careful PR exercise to undo the damage.
7. Flight and Hotel fares will be cheap initially
The slow but steady return to travel means airlines will go the extra mile to ensure passengers not only have safe flights, but also ensure that they are able to generate enough demand for travel.
With airlines slowly getting back on their feet, prices of flight have been slashed to encourage an initial spurt of bookings. This will, in turn, over a period of time, encourage more and more users to book flights.
Hotels too have suffered immensely in light of the pandemic and will look to slashing prices and hope customers and travellers return.
8. Airports are going to be a whole different world
There was a time when I could arrive 30 minutes before departure at the busy domestic terminal in Mumbai and still manage to make it to the flight. That may not be possible anymore.
Airports will need to add more and more screening procedures before allowing passengers to board the plane. Social distancing measures will need to be observed at ticket kiosks, check-in counters, immigration halls and baggage collection points. Masks and even gloves could be made mandatory. We are already seeing these procedures in motion. Temperature checks, saliva inspections, swabs, the works.
Additional measures could include filling out much more detailed forms, probably carrying a health declarations, tracking bracelets. All of these tests combined can probably take an hour or more to complete. Thorough disinfection of passengers before boarding will take place.
Expect the same amount of checks or probably even more stringent ones at your port of arrival. Airlines will need to keep stringent records of passengers and their details on a global repository. There is even talk of training dogs to detect people infected with the coronavirus.
One can continue speculating. The above are simply some of the ideas being mooted around in the airline industry at large.
9. Travel will bounce back
Well, it has to. The travel industry has been witness to shocks in the past, and has bounced back stronger. 9/11 bought in a seismic shift to airport security across the world. While traveler confidence definitely dipped, people were back traveling within months. This pandemic will facilitate major shifts in health and safety for travellers and tourists alike.
For an industry that employs 1 out of 10 people worldwide, the travel and tourism industry is too significant to simple dwindle. Several livelihoods depend completely on the tourism and travel industry.
People will want to get out and be able to explore the world again. Slowly but surely, things will open up and the travel industry will be thriving again. And that’s a hope, that we want to keep alive!
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